Friday, January 25, 2008
‘How Do You Elect an Unpopular Nominee?’
Elections piece by
JB Williams
Republicans are headed for BIG trouble as all of the unpopular party “front-runners” head into Super Tuesday with their campaigns on life support.
The DNC primary race is already a two man race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, each of whom have raised over $100 million in campaign funds and head into Super Tuesday flush with cash and plenty more where that came from.
But four of the five remaining Republican candidates are running on empty heading into Super Tuesday and overall, Republican fund raising trails Democrats by the widest margin in modern history.
Democrat voters are divided almost 50-50, half like Hillary and the other half like Obama. But none of the Republican candidates has the support of even 30 percent of their party faithful and the fact that nobody is betting money on any of the Republican campaigns, should be of great concern to all Republicans.
Money is the gas every campaign runs on
Bush - Cheney out-raised Gore - Lieberman by $60 million and won the electoral vote to take the White House in 2000. In 2004, Bush - Cheney again out-raised Kerry - Edwards by $40 million and won by almost 4 million votes.
But in 2008, where is the Republican money going to come from and who can raise it? So far, it’s coming from nowhere and nobody is raising it. Paul has done the best at raising money in the fourth quarter, but the worst at converting that cash to Republican voter support, remaining a distant dead last in all national polls, due to his anti-Republican ideals.
Both Democrat candidates have strong financial and voter support. Republicans are instead, divided and disgusted, sitting on their wallets and promising to sit this one out. By contrast, 2008 might make the 2006 bloodbath look like a Republican victory.
The Frightening Reality for the RNC front-runners
All national polls say that even though five Republicans remain in the race, only three have enough voter support to keep going in the nomination process. But only one has the money to keep going and his money is not coming from supporters, but rather his personal bank account.
The most current national poll averages (1/11 – 1/22), per Real Clear Politics
McCain 26.3%
Huckabee 18.8%
Romney 15.8%
Giuliani 12.2%
Thompson 10.2%
Paul 4.8%
Thompson just dropped out with more than double the support of Paul. Paul never had a chance in the RNC no matter how much money he raises from anti-war activists across the aisle, and Rudy, who has finished just about last everywhere so far, is dropping in the polls even in “make or break” Florida now.
Like it or not, the Republican race really appears to be a race divided almost equally between McCain, Romney and Huckabee, none of whom are conservative and none of them with even 30 percent support from their party. McCain is on top today, but the situation remains very fluid.
The McCain and Huckabee campaigns have been running on empty since the day they announced a campaign. Neither has raised even 10 percent of the money raised by either Democrat opponent and neither has the personal deep pockets of Mitt Romney, who ran out of campaign contributions months ago and would already be out of the race had he not dumped millions in personal wealth into his campaign just to stay alive.
Where’s the campaign gas going to come from?
All of the Republican front-runners are banking on Republicans voting against Hillary and/or Obama in November, recognizing the reality that few Republicans can vote for them, without holding their nose.
Yet at the moment, Romney appears the only one capable of even making it to November, and even he will have to fund his campaign himself to get there. The money simply isn’t flowing for Republicans in 2008 and that is very likely to be a sign of things to come in November, no matter which remaining Republican emerges the nominee.
The three remaining Republicans, four at best
For all practical purposes, the RNC race can be described as a dead heat between at the most four candidates, with no clear national front-runner. But none of the four are able to raise campaign fuel because none of the four enjoy the broad based support of Republican voters.
Even the departed candidates are divided among the front-runners. Tancredo endorsed Romney, but Hunter endorsed Huckabee and so far, Thompson has endorsed none of the above. Though it is tough to imagine Thompson ever endorsing anyone but old friend John.
This time, conservatives may decide the election
For years now, Independent voters have decided elections and clearly, it is Independent voters who have decided the Republican nomination of less than conservative Republicans even this time around.
But this time, it may be conservatives who actually decide the ultimate outcome of the election.
When conservative media giant Rush Limbaugh makes this public statement to his more than 20 million listeners, “I can see possibly not supporting the Republican nominee this election, and I never thought that I would say that in my life.” you know that the level of angst among mainstream conservatives is at an all time high.
If conservatives do sit this one out, they will have decided the outcome of the election for the first time in decades. Clearly, they are sitting on their wallets. Will they also sit on their votes and, even if they don’t sit on their vote, where will the Republican campaign money come from between now and November?
How Do You Elect an Unpopular Nominee?
This is the problem with nominating unpopular candidates. Nobody is inspired to spend hard earned money to advance a campaign they don’t even want to vote for in the end. When November rolls around and the Democrat ticket has the ability to outspend the Republican ticket 5 to 1 in the general election, that’s an election you can’t win.
Republicans have nominated their way into a corner for 2008, a corner not easy to get out of.
They are advancing candidates that few Republicans will reach into their pockets for and many will not even leave the comfort of their home in November, just to cast another vote against another Democrat.
In short, it is highly unlikely that any unpopular nominee can be elected in the general election when they are out-gunned 5 to 1 in campaign funds and 2 to 1 in voters.
If the DNC is smart enough to unite Clinton and Obama on one ticket, it’s all over but the shoutin’… The general election spending will be 10 to 1 in favor of a Democrat White House.
Republicans have only themselves to blame…
Boss Tweed, who ran Tammany Hall in the late 1800’s (the infamously corrupt NYC Democrat machine) said it best…
“I don’t care who does the electing as long as I get to do the nominating.”
Republicans did the nominating. Now they may have to live with the only plausible result of the general election.
HowardWasRight 
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